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Prediction for CME (2026-06-11T00:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-11T00:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46775/-1
CME Note: Bright loop CME and shock first seen to the Northeast by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-06-11T00:36Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3, STEREO A COR2 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this CME is a long duration C6.7 class flare from Active Region 14465 (N09E39) seen peaking at 2026-06-11T00:02Z. This flare can be seen in SDO AIA 131 along with a wide region of dimming, field line opening and an EUV wave seen in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284. | Arrival note: Arrival signature characterized by a sharp jump in B_total from ~5 nT to ~8 nT accompanied by a sharp increase in solar wind speed form ~550 km/s to ~630 km/s as well as an increase in temperature from ~135k K to ~364k K and an increase in density from ~5 p/cc to ~14 p/cc. Starting around 2026-06-13T13:44Z, the magnetic field components become more stable with time until about 20:00Z, potentially indicating the presence of one or more passing flux ropes. This event is most likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2026-06-11T00:36Z. Two other CMEs, CME: 2026-06-09T16:36Z and CME: 2026-06-09T21:36Z, were also anticipated to provide very weak glancing blows within this timeframe, but have more likely missed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-06-13T09:51Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-13T03:58Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/46784/1
Model Inputs:
2026-06-09T16:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-44.0, Lat.=12.0, Speed=380.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2026-06-10T01:55Z
2026-06-09T21:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=19.0, Lat.=-29.0, Speed=348.0, HalfAngle=21.0, Time21.5=2026-06-10T06:58Z
2026-06-11T00:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-32.0, Lat.=21.0, Speed=885.0, HalfAngle=41.0, Time21.5=2026-06-11T04:45Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-06-13T03:58Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =18.9 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.8
(kp)90=5
(kp)180=7

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-11T06:37Z
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-14T12:53Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-13T20:31Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 43.90 hour(s)
Difference: 5.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) on 2026-06-11T13:57Z

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